The purpose of the research is to analyse the market for dual-use industrial products in Russia and to make a forecast of its development through the example of the machinery and technical products export. The factors that affect the functioning of the dual-use product market are highlighted, including gross domestic product, the volatility index, oil price, and the dollar index. A multiplicative dynamic series decomposition model was used to forecast the export of dual-use machinery and technical products. It has been established that the export of dual-use machinery and technical products is characterised by a decrease in the medium-term forecast period (2020–2024). To intensify market development, priority areas for cooperation and expansion of joint projects in the military-industrial complex have been formulated. The practical significance of the results obtained is the ability to determine the points of innovative growth of the dual-use industrial products market in Russia. © 2020, World Scientific and Engineering Academy and Society. All rights reserved.