The Sino-US trade conflict 2019 and its prospects: between pessimism and uncertainty

The article-discusses the aggravation of the Sino-US trade conflict in 2019. The political and economic parameters of the dispute between Beijing and Washington are presented: a two-layer game in foreign policy decision making, a factor of state's prestige in trade and economic disputes, increasing of import. tariffs, protection of intellectual property rights, subsidies for the State-owned enterprises (SOLs) and mandatory technology transfer. In the first part, the author analyses cyclical nature of crises in Sino-US relations, inter alia, their 'long' and 'short' cycles. The second part is devoted to the impact of the US Trump administration's foreign strategy on the China and the US bilateral trade. The new US administration has fell apart from the policy of its predecessors, which considered economic interdependence as a cornerstone of bilateral relations. The third part illuminates positions of the parties during sharp aggravation of the trade conflict in May, 2019; the actual refusal of the parties to further negotiations, as well as the significance of the "third" package of sanctions on their bilateral relationship. Despite significant concessions on the part of China, the United States continues to insist on accepting their demands of lesser support to Chinese SOEs and protecting intellectual property rights. The fourth part is devoted to the unfolding information war under the framework of the Sino-US trade conflict. In contrast to previous crises, in May 2019, China took a more active stance, starting from the very beginning with a massive information campaign to protect its own national and economic interests. This was manifested, above all, by public statements by the head of the Chinese delegation at the trade negotiations, the State Council Vice PremierLiu He, which he made immediately after the US moves. The author emphasizes that current economic dispute between the world's largest economies jeopardizes the overall balance of Sino-American relations, and may have a significant impact on the global economy as a whole. The current. conflict will be likely of long-term run and can lead to the intensification of China's efforts to promote alternative economic strategies, e.g. the BRI. As a response to the US protectionist measures, China will be likely to seek to replace American import (e.g. agricultural) goods by Russian ones.