Клиническая и экспериментальная морфология.
Федеральное государственное бюджетное научное учреждение "Научно-исследовательский институт морфологии человека".
Vol. 10.
2021.
P. 39-46
The Reduced SIR (RSIR) model of COVID-19 pandemic based on a two-parameter nonlinear first-order ordinary differential equation with retarded time argument is developed. An algorithm aimed to forecast the COVID-19 pandemic development by approximate solution of RSIR model is proposed. The input data for this algorithm are the cumulative numbers of infected people on three dates (e.g., today, a week ago, and two weeks ago).