The assessment of the development of foreign trade relations of Russia based on the cointegration analysis

The methods of cointegration analysis and the Vector error correction model (VECM) were used in the study of the peculiarities of Russian foreign economic relations with the main partner countries in the sectoral context. As a result of the research, reliable models of cointegration interrelations were obtained, which allowed us to reveal certain patterns of trade development of the selected group of countries. The obtained cointegrating coefficients made it possible to estimate the speed of recovery of trade links that were disrupted due to external influences. This information about the resistance of international trade ties is important for economic analysis and forecasting. © IAEME Publication.

Authors
Navrotskaya N.A.1 , Sopilko N.Y. 2 , Shamsheev S.V. 2 , Bolotova R.S. 3 , Bondarchuk N.V. 3 , Margolina E.V.4, 5
Journal
International Journal of Civil Engineering and Technology
Publisher
IAEME Publication
Number of issue
2
Language
English
Pages
1899-1911
Status
Published
Link
External link
Volume
10
Year
2019
Organizations
  • 1 Saint-Petersburg State University, Chaikovskogo St., 62, St.Petersburg, 191123, Russian Federation
  • 2 Peoples' Friendship University of Russia (RUDN University), Miklukho-Maklaya St., 6, Moscow, 117198, Russian Federation
  • 3 Russian State Social University, Vil’gelma Picka Str., 4, Moscow, 129226, Russian Federation
  • 4 Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Russian Federation, Vernadsky Prospect, 84, Moscow119571, Russian Federation
  • 5 Moscow Timiryazev Agricultural Academy, Timiryazev St., 49, Moscow, 127550, Russian Federation
Keywords
Cointegration analysis; Foreign trade relations; International trade; Vector error correction model (VECM)
Date of creation
19.07.2019
Date of change
19.07.2019
Short link
https://repository.rudn.ru/en/records/article/record/38766/
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