Consumer Loan Demand Modeling

Nowadays in Russia, a strong growth in consumer lending is taking place. During 2017–2019 the part of consumer loans in the total mass of loans was 57%. In Russia, the fight against poverty is one of the national goals, which determines the relevance of research and mathematical modeling of the debt burden on the population. We analyze the debt burden using the database of the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey—Higher School of Economics (RLMS-HSE), which includes the data of 2838 households from 38 constituent entities of the Russian Federation. The households are divided into those who are inclined to take loans and those who do not need credits. Using a modified Ramsey model, it is possible to reproduce the dynamics of consumer loans, cash, consumptions, and the dynamics of deposits over the last decade. The most expected forecasts are presented in accordance with the level of population income loss. © 2021, Springer Nature Switzerland AG.

Shananin A.A. 1, 2, 3, 4 , Tarasenko M.V.5 , Trusov N.V.1, 2, 3
Сборник материалов конференции
Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH
1476 CCIS
  • 1 Faculty of Computational Mathematics and Cybernetics, MSU, GSP-1, 1-52, Leninskiye Gory, Moscow, 119991, Russian Federation
  • 2 Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology, National Research University, 9 Institutsky pereulok, Dolgoprudny, Moscow Region, 141701, Russian Federation
  • 3 Federal Research Center “Computer Science and Control” of RAS, Vavilova Street 40, Moscow, 119333, Russian Federation
  • 4 Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia, RUDN University, Miklukho-Maklaya Street 6, Moscow, 117198, Russian Federation
  • 5 Moscow School of Economics, MSU, GSP-1, 1-61 Leninskiye Gory, Moscow, 119992, Russian Federation
Ключевые слова
Consumer behavior; Forecasts; Modified Ramsey model
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Другие записи

Mazzei M., Bik O.V., Palma A.L., De Maria M.
Lecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics). Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH. Том 12954 LNCS. 2021. С. 3-20