Predictive scenarios of the russian oil industry; with a discussion on macro and micro dynamics of open innovation in the COVID 19 pandemic

The decrease in the economic activity level around the world due to the COVID-19 pandemic spread has led to a sharp decrease in the crude oil price and provoked an oil war outbreak in the global energy market. The current situation has provoked the need for a total decrease in the crude oil production in the world. Considering that Russia is one of the main oil exporters on the world market, the need to determine the supply and demand levels for Russian oil is becoming relevant. The aim of the paper is to model predictive scenarios of Russian oil industry development, considering the specifics of the current economic environment given the COVID-19 pandemic. The multifactor correlation modeling method was used to form the system of indicators determining the level of demand and supply for Russian oil used and the total level of their influence. The functions determine the probability of implementing various scenarios of oil industry development depending on the predicted values of demand and supply. The three-sigma rule and the fuzzy sets method were used to estimate three scenarios of oil industry development for 2020-2021. Changes in revenues of the industry under the influence of forecast indicators of supply and demand for oil have been assessed and the probability of implementation of each of the scenarios has been reasoned. The results obtained are of a practical nature and can be used by government agencies, financial intermediaries, and scientists to diagnose Russian oil industry development. The results will be useful for oil companies to develop a strategy of open innovations for further design of the scientific information field for the effective functioning of the industry in complete uncertainty conditions. © 2020 by the authors.

Ponkratov V.1 , Kuznetsov N.2 , Bashkirova N.3 , Volkova M.4 , Alimova M. 5 , Ivleva M. 6 , Vatutina L.7 , Elyakova I.8
Номер выпуска
  • 1 Department of Public Finance, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, 125993, Russian Federation
  • 2 Research Institute of Digital Transformation Management, State University of Management, Moscow, 109542, Russian Federation
  • 3 Higher School of State Audit, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, 119234, Russian Federation
  • 4 Department of Industrial Logistics, Bauman Moscow State Technical University, Moscow, 105005, Russian Federation
  • 5 Russian Language Department, Peoples' Friendship University of Russia, Moscow, 117198, Russian Federation
  • 6 History and Philosophy Department, Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, Moscow, 117997, Russian Federation
  • 7 Department of Public Administration and Law, Moscow Polytechnical University, Moscow, 107023, Russian Federation
  • 8 Department of Economics and Finance, North-Eastern Federal University, Yakutsk, 677000, Russian Federation
Ключевые слова
COVID-19 pandemic; Crude oil; Oil industry; Oil wars; Open innovations; Russia
Дата создания
Дата изменения
Постоянная ссылка

Другие записи