Approaches to stochastic modeling of wind turbines

Background. This paper study statistical data gathered from wind turbines located on the territory of the Republic of Poland. The research is aimed to construct the stochastic model that predicts the change of wind speed with time. Purpose. The purpose of this work is to find the optimal distribution for the approximation of available statistical data on wind speed. Methods. We consider four distributions of a random variable: Log-Normal, Weibull, Gamma and Beta. In order to evaluate the parameters of distributions we use method of maximum likelihood. To assess the the results of approximation we use a quantile-quantile plot. Results. All the considered distributions properly approximate the available data. The Weibull distribution shows the best results for the extreme values of the wind speed. Conclusions. The results of the analysis are consistent. © ECMS Zita Zoltay Paprika, Péter Horák, Kata Váradi,Péter Tamás Zwierczyk, Ágnes Vidovics-Dancs, János Péter Rádics (Editors).

Gevorkyan M.N. 1 , Demidova A.V. 1 , Zaryadov I.S. 1, 2 , Sobolewski R.A.3 , Korolkova A.V. 1 , Kulyabov D.S. 1, 4 , Sevastianov L.A. 1, 5
Сборник материалов конференции
European Council for Modelling and Simulation
  • 1 Department of Applied Probability and Informatics, RUDN University (Peoples' Friendship University of Russia), 6 Miklukho-Maklaya str., Moscow, 117198, Russian Federation
  • 2 Institute of Informatics Problems, FRC CSC RAS, IPI FRC CSC RAS, 44-2 Vavilova str., Moscow, 119333, Russian Federation
  • 3 Department of Power Engineering, Fotonics and Lighting Technology, Bialystok University of Technology, 45D Wiejska str., Bialystok, 15-351, Poland
  • 4 Laboratory of Information Technologies Joint Institute for Nuclear Research, 6 Joliot-Curie, Dubna, Moscow region, 141980, Russian Federation
  • 5 Bogoliubov Laboratory of Theoretical Physics, Joint Institute for Nuclear Research, 6 Joliot-Curie, Dubna, Moscow region, 141980, Russian Federation
Ключевые слова
Approximation; Beta distribution; Gamma distribution; Lognormal distribution; Statistics; Weibull distribution; Wind speed
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