The paper aims to research and analyze key economic indicators of the EU countries in the agricultural sector and identify the strong points and limitations of the integration group in this sector that affect its development prospects. The theoretical and methodological basis of the research includes the historical and logical, dialectical principles and contradictions, and the method of scientific abstraction. The process-system approach, used in an in-depth analysis of the key economic indicators of the EU countries in agriculture, was fundamental to justify the need to develop agriculture and increase production volume in the EU countries. The paper focuses on the agricultural production index (API) estimates in EU countries. Thus, this paper presents a forecast of this indicator until 2023 and identifies the trends of decreasing/increasing volume of agricultural production in individual countries of the EU. Besides, the paper analyzes the dynamics of grains and grain legumes production. Internal and external factors could influence the change in the trend for this indicator. Based on the problems and contradictions identified in individual countries of the integration group in agricultural development, the authors conclude that, in the current context, it is necessary to develop new programs and set new trajectories to develop agriculture and rural areas further. The authors also discuss the new Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), which sets ten goals aimed at developing agriculture and the rural areas of the EU countries. These goals can help strengthen the positions of the EU countries in the agricultural sector and secure their status in the world food markets. © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2023.