THE RATE OF INCREASE AND PREDICTION OF GENERAL MORBIDITY IN RURAL AREAS

Introduction. It is necessary to forecast the development of population morbidity, based on the processing and analysis of accumulated reliable information to provide timely high-quality medical service, and to develop a set of targeted therapeutic and preventive measures. Aim. The aim of the study was to assess the features of the growth rate and to forecast general morbidity of the adult population in rural areas focused on different branches of agriculture. Material and methods. The processing and analysis of data from annual statistical reports of the Sanitary-Epidemiological Welfare and Public Health Service of Tashkent region on morbidity of adult population (18 years and older) living in Bostanlyk (fruit and vegetable) and Chinaz (cotton growing) districts were performed. Indicators of general morbidity of rural population in dynamics were studied for the period 2007–2018 by classes of diseases according to ICD-10. Comparative analysis of general morbidity was performed for two 5-year periods (2007–2011 and 2014–2018). Statistical analysis was performed using Microsoft Excel 2016 and Statistica 10.0 software packages. Student’s t-test was used to determine the significance of differences in mean values. Differences of arithmetic mean values were considered reliable at p < 0,05. Results and discussion. In the period from 2007 to 2018, the dynamic changes in the general morbidity of the adult population in the cotton-growing and, to a greater extent, in the fruit-and-vegetable districts of Tashkent province were characterized by a negative average growth rate (-6,8 vs. -66,5%). As a result of analysis of statistical data for 2014–2018, in comparison with 2007–2011, decrease of general morbidity of population in fruit and vegetable growing district by 39,5%, and on the contrary, in cotton-growing district there was increase by 9,6%. Forecasting indicates a further decrease in the general morbidity of population in rural areas of Tashkent region in the coming years. At the same time, the tendency to further increase of respiratory diseases - in the fruit and vegetable growing district and respiratory, digestive and circulatory diseases – in the cotton-growing district is outlined. Conclusion. The observed decrease in the general morbidity of the rural population, apparently, is associated with the implementation in Uzbekistan of crop diversification policy since 2010, based on reducing the use of pesticides and mineral fertilizers. Significant prevalence of general morbidity of six leading classes of diseases, characteristics of growth rate and medium-term forecast create the need for monitoring and contribute to establishment of a set of measures for prevention, early detection of diseases and pathological conditions, taking into account the contributing risk factors. © 2021, LLC "IMC" Modern Clinical Medicine. All rights reserved.