Controlled Energy Transition: Economic War Among Global Stakeholders

This article is dedicated to the mid-term and long-term prospects of the European gas market transformation. The energy market is observed as an integrated system of corporate and governmental interests. The forced energy transition is contemplated as a game-changing undertaking, causing landslide effects for all parties involved: households, companies, states. The contradictory goals of alleged environmental and economic efficiency are considered as factors of an inherent dilemma for the future of the EU gas market. The regulatory and political intervention in different industries (coal, nuclear, gas, etc.) due to cost and benefit trade-offs causes a joint reaction of the entire complex. A potential contradiction between declared goals and probable consequences is spotted. Authors attempt to provide an insight scenario analysis of key economic alterations for different types of consumers and suppliers. An emphasis is put upon the roles of major players – Russian and US suppliers – and the transformation of market structure in general. The results of the study may be practically applied in terms of elaborating business strategies on the EU market within the span of 10–20 years. © 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.