The Prospect of the Relationship between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Saudi Arabia: Plausible Scenarios

Islamic republic of Iran and Saudi Arabia are identified as two effective countries in sub-region of the Persian Gulf, that the radius of their influence covers whole great region of the Middle East. The relationship between the two countries have been full of tension during last decade, and during this period changes of political authorities of these countries were not able to improve this relationship. The cause is the resources of foreign policy behavior of the two countries, historical backgrounds of each country, as well as conflict of interest of each in the region of the Persian Gulf and the Middle East. The most competition atmosphere between the two countries is inside the three climacteric countries of Iraq, Syria and Yemen. Accordingly, the prospect of bilateral relations is a consequence of their behaviors in the region and also their dealings with these three countries. Three scenarios presented regarding the two countries' foreign policy in the region can be discussed: efforts to establish governments, attempts to maintain political structures of collapsing countries, and finally, continuation of current trends that may lead to disintegration of these climacteric countries. By studying these scenarios and drivers, blockers and their wild cards, this paper considers the second scenario best for both countries, which is consistent with their national interests, and with the region's history and general situation.