Electric Energy Consumption Modes Forecasting and Management for Gas Industry Enterprises Based on Artificial Intelligence Methods

This paper shows the electrical load forecast problem solution for gas industry enterprises, taking into account the comparative analysis of forecasting methods. The obtained information is an effective tool for influencing the optimization of the tariff policy and further corrective well-timed actions of personnel for improving contractual work and minimizing costs for consumed electricity. Artificial neural network models are developed taking into account electric energy consumption nature and parameters. This paper presents the dependences of changes in the coefficients of seasonality, cyclicity, and irregularity for the electric load at electricity metering points. The problem of forecasting electrical loads and predicting their accuracy is shown and solved in the context of the gas industry enterprises. The characteristics and architectures of multiple artificial neural networks comparative analysis is given. © 2021 IEEE.

Authors
Babanova I.S. 1 , Tokarev I.S. 2 , Abramovich B.N.3 , Babyr K.V.3
Publisher
Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
Language
English
Pages
1382-1385
Status
Published
Number
9396389
Year
2021
Organizations
  • 1 RUDN University, Department of Subsoil Use and Oil and Gas Business Engineering Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russian Federation
  • 2 PJSC Gazprom, Leading Technologist, St. Petersburg, Russian Federation
  • 3 Saint-Petersburg Mining University, Electrical Energy and Electromechanics Department, St. Petersburg, Russian Federation
Keywords
artificial neural network; cyclicity coefficient; electric energy consumption management algorithm; forecasting models; gas industry facilities; industrial enterprises; irregularity coefficient; mean absolute percentage error; multiplicative model; seasonality coefficient; self-service power plants; wholesale electricity and capacity market
Date of creation
20.07.2021
Date of change
20.07.2021
Short link
https://repository.rudn.ru/en/records/article/record/74371/
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