Financial Stability: Modeling the Russian Budgetary and Tax Policy with Fiscal Multipliers' Attraction

The chapter contains a methodology for formalized evaluation of the public fiscal policy from the view point of its impact on the financial stability of a national economy using the example of the Russian Federation and taking into account the fiscal multipliers' effects. The significance of this problem is predetermined by recent trends in Russia's development, when the national economy legs twice behind the world indicators. Taking into account the importance of the Russian budget system as a mechanism for the redistribution of gross domestic product (GDP), the financial stability safeguarding has been connected with the public finance sustainability and with the federal budget revenues and expenditures equilibrium. There are used the methodology of analysis of economic systems' dynamic factors of financial stability as well as fiscal multipliers' effects, aiming at managing national economy's long-term development with the ultimate purpose to maintain the GDP growth rates. Taking into account the fiscal multipliers' values, the model comparisons of the macroeconomics and budget parameters' dynamics prove the necessity of the budget consolidation policy in 2018-2020 provided that the budget expenditures efficiency increases. The latter has been proved by modeling dependences represented by the fiscal multipliers' effects in terms of national financial stability.