Mathematical Model of Enterprise with Revolving Funds Deficit: Analysis of Demand Shocks 2020

Abstract: Russian enterprises of manufacturing complex are facing financial crisis because of the dramatic drop in demand for products due to the pandemic. Since a significant part of the population is employed in this sector, measures to support production in manufacturing industries are discussed at various levels. Based on the mathematical model of production, taking into account unstable demand, we propose a methodology for analyzing the effectiveness of support measures. Financial performance of the enterprise are calculated using an analytical solution of the Bellman equation that determines the valuation of the company, as well as the ergodicity property of the random process of product sales. The application of the methodology is illustrated by the example of KAMAZ Group. © 2020, Pleiades Publishing, Ltd.

Authors
Alimov D.A. 1, 2 , Obrosova N.K. 1, 2, 3 , Shananin A.A. 1, 2, 3, 4
Journal
Lobachevskii Journal of Mathematics
Publisher
Pleiades Publishing
Issue number
12
Language
English
Pages
2628-2637
State
Published
Link
External link
DOI
10.1134/S1995080220120045
Volume
41
Year
2020
Organizations
  • 1 Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, 119991, Russian Federation
  • 2 Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology (State University), Dolgoprudny, Moscow oblast 141701, Russian Federation
  • 3 Dorodnicyn Computing Centre of Federal Research Center ‘‘Computer Science and Control’’, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, 119333, Russian Federation
  • 4 Peoples Friendship University of Russia, Moscow, 117198, Russian Federation
Keywords
Bellman equation; company’s Value; current assets deficit; Houthakker–Johansen model; identification; Production model; stochastic Poisson flow; unstable demand
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