Integrated global assessment of the natural forest carbon potential

<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>Forests are a substantial terrestrial carbon sink, but anthropogenic changes in land use and climate have considerably reduced the scale of this system<jats:sup>1</jats:sup>. Remote-sensing estimates to quantify carbon losses from global forests<jats:sup>2–5</jats:sup> are characterized by considerable uncertainty and we lack a comprehensive ground-sourced evaluation to benchmark these estimates. Here we combine several ground-sourced<jats:sup>6</jats:sup> and satellite-derived approaches<jats:sup>2,7,8</jats:sup> to evaluate the scale of the global forest carbon potential outside agricultural and urban lands. Despite regional variation, the predictions demonstrated remarkable consistency at a global scale, with only a 12% difference between the ground-sourced and satellite-derived estimates. At present, global forest carbon storage is markedly under the natural potential, with a total deficit of 226 Gt (model range = 151–363 Gt) in areas with low human footprint. Most (61%, 139 Gt C) of this potential is in areas with existing forests, in which ecosystem protection can allow forests to recover to maturity. The remaining 39% (87 Gt C) of potential lies in regions in which forests have been removed or fragmented. Although forests cannot be a substitute for emissions reductions, our results support the idea<jats:sup>2,3,9</jats:sup> that the conservation, restoration and sustainable management of diverse forests offer valuable contributions to meeting global climate and biodiversity targets.</jats:p>

Authors
Mo Lidong 1 , Zohner C.M. 1 , Reich P.B. 2, 3, 4 , Liang Jingjing 5 , De Miguel Sergio 6, 7 , Nabuurs Gert-Jan 8 , Renner S.S. 9 , Van Den Hoogen Johan 10 , Araza Arnan 8 , Herold Martin 11 , Mirzagholi Leila 10 , Ma Haozhi 10 , Averill Colin 10 , Phillips O.L. 12 , Gamarra J.G. 13 , Hordijk Iris 10 , Routh Devin 14 , Abegg Meinrad 15 , Adou Yao Y.C. 16 , Alberti Giorgio 17, 18 , Almeyda Zambrano A.M. 19 , Alvarado B.V. 20 , Alvarez-Dávila Esteban 21 , Alvarez-Loayza Patricia 22 , Alves L.F. 23 , Amaral Iêda 24 , Ammer Christian 25 , Antón-Fernández Clara 26 , Araujo-Murakami Alejandro 27 , Arroyo Luzmila 27 , Avitabile Valerio 28 , Aymard G.A. 29, 30 , Baker T.R. 12 , Bałazy Radomir 31 , Banki Olaf 32 , Barroso J.G. 33 , Bastian M.L. 34, 35 , Bastin Jean-Francois 36 , Birigazzi Luca 37 , Birnbaum Philippe 38, 39, 40 , Bitariho Robert 41 , Boeckx Pascal 42 , Bongers Frans 8 , Bouriaud Olivier 43 , Brancalion P.H. 44 , Brandl Susanne 45 , Brearley F.Q. 46 , Brienen Roel 12 , Broadbent E.N. 19 , Bruelheide Helge 47, 48 , Bussotti Filippo 49 , Cazzolla Gatti Roberto 50 , César R.G. 44 , Cesljar Goran 51 , Chazdon R.L. 52, 53 , Chen H.Y. 54 , Chisholm Chelsea 1 , Cho Hyunkook 55 , Cienciala Emil 56, 57 , Clark Connie 58 , Clark David 59 , Colletta G.D. 60 , Coomes D.A. 61 , Cornejo Valverde Fernando 62 , Corral-Rivas J.J. 63 , Crim P.M. 64, 65 , Cumming J.R. 64 , Dayanandan Selvadurai 66 , De Gasper A.L. 67 , Decuyper Mathieu 8 , Derroire Géraldine 68 , Devries Ben 69 , Djordjevic Ilija 51 , Dolezal Jiri 70, 71 , Dourdain Aurélie 68 , Engone Obiang N.L. 72 , Enquist B.J. 73, 74 , Eyre T.J. 75 , Fandohan A.B. 76 , Fayle T.M. 77, 78 , Feldpausch T.R. 79 , Ferreira L.V. 80 , Finér Leena 81 , Fischer Markus 82 , Fletcher Christine 83 , Frizzera Lorenzo 84 , Gianelle Damiano 84 , Glick H.B. 85 , Harris D.J. 86 , Hector Andrew 87 , Hemp Andreas 88 , Hengeveld Geerten 8 , Hérault Bruno 39, 89 , Herbohn J.L. 53 , Hillers Annika 90, 91 , Honorio Coronado E.N. 92 , Hui Cang 93, 94 , Ibanez Thomas 39 , Imai Nobuo 95 , Jagodziński A.M. 96, 97 , Jaroszewicz Bogdan 98 , Johannsen V.K. 99 , Joly C.A. 60 , Jucker Tommaso 100 , Jung Ilbin 55 , Karminov Viktor 101 , Kartawinata Kuswata 22 , Kearsley Elizabeth 42 , Kenfack David 102 , Kennard D.K. 103 , Kepfer-Rojas Sebastian 99 , Keppel Gunnar 104 , Khan M.L. 105 , Killeen T.J. 27 , Kim H.S. 106, 107 , Kitayama Kanehiro 108 , Köhl Michael 109 , Korjus Henn 110 , Kraxner Florian 111 , Kucher Dmitry 112 , Laarmann Diana 110 , Lang Mait 110 , Lu Huicui 113 , Lukina N.V. 114 , Maitner B.S. 73 , Malhi Yadvinder 87 , Marcon Eric 40 , Marimon B.S. 115 , Marimon-Junior B.H. 115 , Marshall A.R. 53, 116, 117 , Martin E.H. 118 , Meave J.A. 119 , Melo-Cruz Omar 120 , Mendoza Casimiro 121 , Mendoza-Polo Irina 122 , Miscicki Stanislaw 123 , Merow Cory 52 , Monteagudo Mendoza Abel 124, 125 , Moreno V.S. 44 , Mukul S.A. 53, 126 , Mundhenk Philip 109 , Nava-Miranda M.G. 63, 127 , Neill David 128 , Neldner V.J. 75 , Nevenic R.V. 51 , Ngugi M.R. 75 , Niklaus P.A. 14 , Oleksyn Jacek 96 , Ontikov Petr 101 , Ortiz-Malavasi Edgar 20 , Pan Yude 129 , Paquette Alain 130 , Parada-Gutierrez Alexander 27 , Parfenova E.I. 131 , Park Minjee 5, 106 , Parren Marc 8 , Parthasarathy Narayanaswamy 132 , Peri P.L. 133 , Pfautsch Sebastian 3 , Picard Nicolas 134 , Piedade M.T. 135 , Piotto Daniel 136 , Pitman N.C. 22 , Poulsen A.D. 86 , Poulsen J.R. 57, 137 , Pretzsch Hans 138, 139 , Ramirez Arevalo Freddy 140 , Restrepo-Correa Zorayda 141 , Rodeghiero Mirco 84, 142 , Rolim S.G. 136 , Roopsind Anand 143 , Rovero Francesco 144, 145 , Rutishauser Ervan 146 , Saikia Purabi 147 , Salas-Eljatib Christian 148, 149 , Saner Philippe 150 , Schall Peter 25 , Schelhaas Mart-Jan 8 , Schepaschenko Dmitry 111, 151 , Scherer-Lorenzen Michael 152 , Schmid Bernhard 14 , Schöngart Jochen 135 , Searle E.B. 130 , Seben Vladimír 153 , Serra-Diaz J.M. 154, 155 , Sheil Douglas 8, 156 , Shvidenko A.Z. 111 , Silva-Espejo J.E. 157 , Silveira Marcos 33 , Singh James 158 , Sist Plinio 39 , Slik Ferry 159 , Sonké Bonaventure 160 , Souza A.F. 161 , Stereńczak K.J. 30 , Svenning Jens-Christian 155 , Svoboda Miroslav 162 , Swanepoel Ben 163 , Targhetta Natalia 135 , Tchebakova Nadja 131 , Ter Steege Hans 32, 164 , Thomas Raquel 165 , Tikhonova Elena 114 , Umunay P.M. 166 , Usoltsev V.A. 167, 168 , Valencia Renato 169 , Valladares Fernando 170 , Van Der Plas Fons 8 , Van Do Tran 171 , Van Nuland M.E. 172 , Vasquez R.M. 124 , Verbeeck Hans 42 , Viana Helder 173, 174 , Vibrans A.C. 67 , Vieira Simone 175 , Von Gadow Klaus 93 , Wang Hua-Feng 176 , Watson J.V. 177 , Werner G.D. 87 , Wiser S.K. 178 , Wittmann Florian 179 , Woell Hannsjoerg 180 , Wortel Verginia 181 , Zagt Roderik 182 , Zawiła-Niedźwiecki Tomasz 183 , Zhang Chunyu 184 , Zhao Xiuhai 184 , Zhou Mo 5 , Zhu Zhi-Xin 176 , Zo-Bi I.C. 89 , Gann G.D. 185 , Crowther T.W. 1
Journal
NATURE
Publisher
Springer Nature
Issue number
7990
Language
English
Pages
92-101
State
Published
Volume
624
Year
2023
Organizations
  • 1 Institute of Integrative Biology, ETH Zurich (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology)
  • 2 University of Minnesota
  • 3 Western Sydney University
  • 4 University of Michigan
  • 5 Purdue University
  • 6 University of Lleida
  • 7 Joint Research Unit CTFC - AGROTECNIO - CERCA
  • 8 Wageningen University & Research
  • 9 Washington University
  • 10 ETH Zurich (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology)
  • 11 Helmholtz GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences
  • 12 University of Leeds
  • 13 Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
  • 14 University of Zürich
  • 15 Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL
  • 16 University Félix Houphouët-Boigny
  • 17 University of Udine
  • 18 National Biodiversity Future Center (NBFC)
  • 19 University of Florida
  • 20 Tecnológico de Costa Rica TEC
  • 21 Universidad Nacional Abierta y a Distancia, UNAD
  • 22 Field Museum of Natural History
  • 23 University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA)
  • 24 National Institute of Amazonian Research
  • 25 University of Göttingen
  • 26 Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research (NIBIO)
  • 27 Museo de Historia Natural Noel Kempff Mercado
  • 28 European Commission
  • 29 Herbario Universitario (PORT), UNELLEZ-Guanare
  • 30 Compensation International Progress S. A. Ciprogress Greenlife
  • 31 Forest Research Institute
  • 32 Naturalis Biodiversity Center
  • 33 Universidade Federal do Acre
  • 34 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
  • 35 Duke University
  • 36 University of Liege
  • 37 Forestry Consultant
  • 38 Institut Agronomique néo-Calédonien (IAC)
  • 39 Univ. Montpellier
  • 40 CIRAD, CNRS, INRAE, IRD
  • 41 Mbarara University of Science & Technology
  • 42 Ghent University
  • 43 Ștefan cel Mare University of Suceava
  • 44 University of São Paulo
  • 45 Bavarian State Institute of Forestry
  • 46 Manchester Metropolitan University
  • 47 Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg
  • 48 German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig
  • 49 University of Firenze
  • 50 University of Bologna
  • 51 Institute of Forestry
  • 52 University of Connecticut
  • 53 Tropical Forests and People Research Centre, University of the Sunshine Coast
  • 54 Lakehead University
  • 55 Korea Forest Promotion Institute
  • 56 IFER - Institute of Forest Ecosystem Research
  • 57 Global Change Research Institute CAS
  • 58 Duke University
  • 59 University of Missouri–St. Louis
  • 60 Universidade Estadual de Campinas
  • 61 University of Cambridge
  • 62 Andes to Amazon Biodiversity Program
  • 63 Universidad Juárez del Estado de Durango
  • 64 West Virginia University
  • 65 The College of Saint Rose
  • 66 Concordia University
  • 67 Universidade Regional de Blumenau
  • 68 Université des Antilles, Université de la Guyane)
  • 69 University of Guelph
  • 70 The Czech Academy of Sciences
  • 71 University of South Bohemia
  • 72 IRET, Herbier National du Gabon (CENAREST)
  • 73 University of Arizona
  • 74 The Santa Fe Institute
  • 75 Queensland Herbarium and Biodiversity Science
  • 76 Université Nationale d'Agriculture
  • 77 Queen Mary University of London
  • 78 Institute of Entomology
  • 79 University of Exeter
  • 80 Coordenação de Ciências da Terra e Ecologia
  • 81 Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke)
  • 82 University of Bern
  • 83 Forest Research Institute Malaysia
  • 84 Fondazione Edmund Mach
  • 85 Glick Designs LLC
  • 86 Royal Botanic Garden Edinburgh
  • 87 University of Oxford
  • 88 University of Bayreuth
  • 89 National Polytechnic Institute (INP-HB)
  • 90 The Royal Society for the Protection of Birds
  • 91 Wild Chimpanzee Foundation, Liberia Office
  • 92 Instituto de Investigaciones de la Amazonía Peruana
  • 93 Stellenbosch University
  • 94 African Institute for Mathematical Sciences
  • 95 Tokyo University of Agriculture
  • 96 Polish Academy of Sciences
  • 97 Poznań University of Life Sciences
  • 98 University of Warsaw
  • 99 University of Copenhagen
  • 100 University of Bristol
  • 101 Mytischi Branch of Bauman Moscow State Technical University
  • 102 Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute
  • 103 Colorado Mesa University
  • 104 University of South Australia
  • 105 A Central University
  • 106 Seoul National University
  • 107 National Center for Agro Meteorology
  • 108 Kyoto University
  • 109 University of Hamburg
  • 110 Estonian University of Life Sciences
  • 111 International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
  • 112 Peoples' Friendship University of Russia (RUDN University)
  • 113 Qingdao Agricultural University
  • 114 Center for Forest Ecology and Productivity, Russian Academy of Sciences
  • 115 Universidade do Estado de Mato Grosso
  • 116 University of York
  • 117 Flamingo Land Ltd.
  • 118 College of African Wildlife Management
  • 119 Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México
  • 120 Universidad del Tolima
  • 121 Colegio de Profesionales Forestales de Cochabamba
  • 122 Jardín Botánico de Medellín
  • 123 Warsaw University of Life Sciences
  • 124 Jardín Botánico de Missouri
  • 125 Universidad Nacional de San Antonio Abad del Cusco
  • 126 Department of Environment and Development Studies, United International University
  • 127 Escuela de Doctorado Internacional de la Universidad de Santiago de Compostela (EDIUS)
  • 128 Universidad Estatal Amazónica
  • 129 USDA Forest Service
  • 130 Université du Québec à Montréal
  • 131 V. N. Sukachev Institute of Forest, FRC KSC, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences
  • 132 Pondicherry University
  • 133 Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA), Universidad Nacional de la Patagonia Austral (UNPA), Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET)
  • 134 GIP Ecofor
  • 135 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia
  • 136 Universidade Federal do Sul da Bahia
  • 137 The Nature Conservancy
  • 138 Technical University of Munich
  • 139 University Valladolid
  • 140 Universidad Nacional de la Amazonía Peruana
  • 141 Servicios Ecosistémicos y Cambio Climático (SECC), Fundación Con Vida & Corporación COL-TREE
  • 142 University of Trento
  • 143 Conservation International
  • 144 University of Florence
  • 145 MUSE - Museo delle Scienze
  • 146 Info Flora
  • 147 Central University of Jharkhand
  • 148 Universidad de La Frontera
  • 149 Universidad de Chile
  • 150 Rhino and Forest Fund e.V.
  • 151 Siberian Federal University
  • 152 University of Freiburg
  • 153 Forest Research Institute Zvolen
  • 154 Université de Lorraine, AgroParisTech, INRAE,
  • 155 Aarhus University
  • 156 Norwegian University of Life Sciences
  • 157 Universidad de la Serena
  • 158 Guyana Forestry Commission
  • 159 Environmental and Life Sciences, Faculty of Science, Universiti Brunei Darussalam
  • 160 University of Yaoundé I
  • 161 Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte
  • 162 Czech University of Life Sciences
  • 163 Wildlife Conservation Society
  • 164 Utrecht University
  • 165 Iwokrama International Centre for Rainforest Conservation and Development (IIC)
  • 166 Yale University
  • 167 Botanical Garden of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences
  • 168 Ural State Forest Engineering University
  • 169 Pontificia Universidad Católica del Ecuador
  • 170 LINCGlobal, Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales, CSIC
  • 171 Vietnamese Academy of Forest Sciences
  • 172 Department of Biology, Stanford University
  • 173 Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environmental and Biological Sciences, CITAB, UTAD, Quinta de Prados
  • 174 Agricultural High School, Polytechnic Institute of Viseu, IPV
  • 175 University of Campinas, UNICAMP
  • 176 Hainan University
  • 177 West Virginia University
  • 178 Manaaki Whenua – Landcare Research
  • 179 Karlsruhe Institute for Technology
  • 180 Independent Researcher
  • 181 Centre for Agricultural Research in Suriname (CELOS)
  • 182 Tropenbos International
  • 183 Polish State Forests, Coordination Center for Environmental Projects
  • 184 Beijing Forestry University
  • 185 Society for Ecological Restoration (SER)
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