Ирак сегодня: на пути к стабильности или новым политическим кризисам?

Рассматривается социально-экономическая и политическая ситуация в Ираке в последние годы, анализируются детерминирующие ее внутренние и внешние факторы, в числе которых смены руководства, массовые протесты, этноконфессиональные конфликты, террористическая угроза, внешние воздействия. Особое внимание уделяется деятельности иракской политической элиты, от которой зависит судьба страны - достижение национального согласия и стабильности, либо политический хаос и угроза развала станы.Оценивается стартовый этап деятельности вновь избранного иракского премьера М. аль-Каземи.

The article focuses on socio-economic and political situation in Iraq in recent years. The authors consider the internal and external factors determining the political and socio-economic situation in the country, including the change of leadership, mass protests, high unemployment, especially among the young people, ethno-confessional conflicts, the terrorist threat, external influences. The situation in the country was significantly aggravated by the collapse of world energy prices. The authors note a number of serious problems and difficulties that the Iraqi society have faced recently - distancing of the Iraqi Sunnis from the authorities, the destructive acts of the «Islamic State»( ISIS) on a part of the national territory, difficulties in the relationship between the central authorities and the Kurdish autonomy. The prospects for relations between Baghdad and the United States and Iran are considered in separate contexts, but in a coherent logical relationship. Particular attention is paid to the activities of the Iraqi political elite which determine the fate of the country - either achieving national harmony and stability, or political chaos and the threat of collapse of the state. The starting stage of the activities of the newly elected Iraqi Prime Minister M. al-Kazemi is assessed. On the whole experts positively assess his activities, but they never tire of warning - his cabinet will have to deal with so many diverse and powerful challenges, including those that little depend on Iraq itself.