ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЕ УЩЕРБОВ ОТ ПРИРОДНЫХ ОПАСНОСТЕЙ ДЛЯ ТУРИСТИЧЕСКОГО КЛАСТЕРА "КУРОРТЫ СЕВЕРНОГО КАВКАЗА"

Предложен методический подход к прогнозированию потенциальных ущербов от природных опасностей при планировании крупных инвестиционных проектов горнолыжного туризма, а также к оценке изменения уязвимости территории, на которых эти проекты будут реализованы. Методика апробирована на данных запланированного к созданию туристического кластера «Курорты Северного Кавказа».

The article proposes a methodological approach to potential damage from natural hazards forecasting in case of large-scale investment projects realization in ski tourism planning, as well as to assessing changes in the vulnerability of the territory in which these projects will be implemented. The method was verified on the data of the “Northern Caucasus Resorts” tourist cluster.The study purpose is the creation and verication of a methodology for socio-economic damage predicting in limit values and vulnerability changing in the regions of the “North Caucasus Resorts” tourist cluster objects localization for the long term.Research methods - statistical (a structural approach based on the identification of common structural patterns of several sets). The lack of statistical information on significant parameters for forecasting determine necessitates of using the various logically non-contradictory revaluations based on the identified structural similarities for the calculation of their values within the planning horizon.The study results and main conclusions - in case of the “North Caucasus Resorts” tourist cluster creation the number of people potentially located in avalanche and mudflow danger areas will significantly increase in all of its facilities localization municipalities, which indicate an increase in the individual risk of death level for this territory. The present population in the ski season in some of the most remote and underdeveloped areas can increase up to 30 times. The increment in the value of the fixed assets for the municipalities under consideration will be from two to 90 times, potential damages in limit values will reach tens of billions rubles.