Information Security Incident Forecasting

Abstract: This article suggests methodological approaches to building conventionally determined and stochastic models of forecasting damages from security incidents in information systems of different applications. The original information for modeling includes a priori data on the possible kind of forecast processes; these data are derived from experience in running similar information systems and from expert estimates. The information for modeling also includes statistics on temporary and volumetric characteristics of damage from security incidents in the examined system. The data fusion is based on the maximum uncertainty principle. © 2021, Allerton Press, Inc.