Global Civil Aircraft Industry: Modern Trends

The passenger air transport industry is highly dependent on the external environment and a number of other factors. In turn, passenger air transport, their level and development affect the civil (commercial) aircraft industry, which is the subject of this work. Such an unexpected external factor as the pandemic was no exception. COVID-19 has had an impact on the entire world economy, as evidenced by many processes and their statistical indicators. The recovery of both the global economy and the civil aircraft industry after the opening of borders and the resumption of transportation will take a long time and will change the current trends in the industry. Each entity involved in the industry will have to restructure its activities. The purpose of this paper is to identify the main future trends in the development of the industry based on a comparative analysis of the industry state before the pandemic and today. The authors will also present their forecast for the development of the global civil aircraft industry in the medium term. As a result of the research, the authors came to the following conclusions. Before the pandemic, the market was characterized by a duopolistic structure (Boeing and Airbus); the development of the industry depends directly on the trends of the world economy; market demand is mainly formed in the Asia-Pacific region; the growth of demand for narrow-body aircraft models is strengthening; the role of first-tier suppliers in the production of aircraft is expanding. According to authors’ opinion, the pandemic will bring some new features to market trends: there will be a reduction in demand for new aircraft and, consequently, a reduction in production volumes; the tendency to switch to less spacious aircraft will become more clear; there will be a faster industry recovery of the in the countries with developed domestic traffic, and there will be an increase in demand for regional aircraft.