Scenarios of the Eurasian Economic Union Development: Analysis and Recommendations

The today’s crisis caused by various limitations entailing industrial production shutdowns and supply chains failures stresses the crucial importance of the national economies revival policies. Stressing the importance of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) development, it is crucial to work out several short-term EAEU development scenarios to come up with the economic growth stimulation and EAEU member-states’ economies revival policy relevant for the current situation. This is the aim of the study. The pandemic and the economic crisis require constant monitoring of the situation along with making the necessary changes in the action plan, which makes the development of long-term scenarios seem unreasonable. To achieve the maximum positive effect, all of the EAEU member-states should be involved in the crisis-mitigation activities. The authors developed and described three EAEU development scenarios, i.e., an optimistic, a moderately optimistic, and a pessimistic one, depending on the duration of the coronavirus spread and the existence of the associated restrictions in the states. Each scenario describes the advantages, prospects, and challenges, associated with their implementation for the member-states and the EAEU on the whole. The conducted analysis allowed providing certain recommendations, which, if followed by the countries, shall allow mitigating the consequences of the pandemic.