Consumer Loan Demand Modeling

Nowadays in Russia, a strong growth in consumer lending is taking place. During 2017–2019 the part of consumer loans in the total mass of loans was 57%. In Russia, the fight against poverty is one of the national goals, which determines the relevance of research and mathematical modeling of the debt burden on the population. We analyze the debt burden using the database of the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey—Higher School of Economics (RLMS-HSE), which includes the data of 2838 households from 38 constituent entities of the Russian Federation. The households are divided into those who are inclined to take loans and those who do not need credits. Using a modified Ramsey model, it is possible to reproduce the dynamics of consumer loans, cash, consumptions, and the dynamics of deposits over the last decade. The most expected forecasts are presented in accordance with the level of population income loss.