Новый альянс в борьбе за лидерство в арабском регионе. Часть 1

Катарско-турецкий альянс, используя панарабскую сеть ассоциации «Братьев-мусульман», а также их идеологию в качестве инструмента в достижении регионального лидерства, сумел достичь впечатляющих успехов в первый период «арабской весны» 2011-2012 гг. Однако в 2013 г. Саудовская Аравия и ее союзники перешли в контрнаступление. Его главным успехом было свержение правительства «Братьев-мусульман» в Египте, осуществленное в союзе с египетскими военными и некоторыми другими внутренними египетскими и международными силами. На данный момент Саудовская Аравия, похоже, остается единственной ближневосточной державой, которая всерьез стремится к региональному лидерству, но потенции турецко-катарско-ихванского альянса все-таки не стоит недооценивать.

Qatari-Turkish Alliance Challenge for Regional Leadership. Part 1

The Qatari-Turkish alliance, using the pan-Arab network of the Muslim Brotherhood as well as their ideology as a tool to achieve regional leadership, managed to achieve impressive success during the first period of Arab Spring in 2011-2012. The Qatari-Turkish alliance proved to be quite an effective mechanism. Indeed, despite the big economic, demographic and military potential (comparable to Iran, Saudi Arabia or Egypt), Turkey (as a non-Arab state) hardly had any real chances to single-handedly achieve regional leadership in the predominantly Arab region (by the way, this is a serious obstacle to Iranian efforts). On the other hand, Qatar, despite its enormous financial resources and Arab identity, is too small to make any serious attempt alone to achieve broad regional influence. Qatar and Turkey managed to throw in 2010-2012 quite an impressive challenge to other regional powers only after they joined forces, adding to this the broad political potential of the pan-Arab Association of Muslim Brotherhood. However, in 2013, Saudi Arabia and its allies managed to carry out a fairly successful counteroffensive. Its central element was the overthrow of the Muslim Brotherhood government in Egypt, carried out in alliance with the Egyptian military and some other internal Egyptian and international forces. At the moment, Saudi Arabia seems to be the only Middle East power that seriously seeks regional leadership, but the potencial of the Turkish-Qatari-Ikhvan Alliance should not be underestimated.