With the recent global warming, especially in the northern hemisphere, requires expansion of research on the modeling and prediction of the destructive processes of coastal water bodies located in the permafrost. We have considered a set of interrelated factors that have a significant impact on deformations of the coastal slopes in the permafrost zone under conditions of seasonal changes in the environment. The model consists of several blocks: the thawing of frozen soil and the occurrence of melt flow, the division of the precipitation on the infiltration and the catchment (surface fluxes) and the seasonal melting of snow as a type of the incoming rainfall, the impact of surface runoff erosion on the coastal slope.