Determinants influencing tourists’ willingness to visit Türkiye – Impact of earthquake hazards on Serbian visitors’ preferences

Abstract Earthquakes are a rather complex natural phenomenon that cannot be prevented, and their effects can be catastrophic and have profound implications on various economic sectors (especially tourism). This study investigates the relationships between subjective factors (gender, age, education, previous experience, and disaster anxiety), the perceived travel risk, and the travel intention of tourists from Serbia to destinations in Türkiye. The pilot study was done in March 2023 with 110 respondents from the Faculty of Science, Department of Geography, Tourism, and Hotel Management, Novi Sad. After the validation of the instruments, the main survey was conducted in the period from March to June 2023. The subjects of interest were residents of Serbia over the age of 18. The data from this study are analyzed using the confirmatory factor analysis and path analyses. This study aims to enhance the understanding of perceived risk and travel intention, specifically focusing on Türkiye. The assessed outcome relates to how tourists perceive three specific categories of risk when traveling to destinations with a high risk of natural disasters, such as earthquake-prone areas. The findings suggest that older respondents tend to perceive lower physical and financial travel risks, even though the influence of age on the perception of socio-psychological risks was inconclusive. Further results reveal that individuals with prior experience tend to hold a heightened perception of physical, financial, and socio-psychological risks. An examination of the relationship between disaster anxiety and perceived travel risks indicates that physical, financial, and socio-psychological risks exert a negative influence on travel intention. Thus, this study may provide a conceptual foundation for both theoretical and practical implications for the improvement of risk management techniques at a specific travel destination in areas prone to earthquake hazards.