Dynamical modelling of street protests using the Yellow Vest Movement and Khabarovsk as case studies

AbstractSocial protests, in particular in the form of street protests, are a frequent phenomenon of modern world often making a significant disruptive effect on the society. Understanding the factors that can affect their duration and intensity is therefore an important problem. In this paper, we consider a mathematical model of protests dynamics describing how the number of protesters change with time. We apply the model to two events such as the Yellow Vest Movement 2018–2019 in France and Khabarovsk protests 2019–2020 in Russia. We show that in both cases our model provides a good description of the protests dynamics. We consider how the model parameters can be estimated by solving the inverse problem based on the available data on protesters number at different time. The analysis of parameter sensitivity then allows for determining which factor(s) may have the strongest effect on the protests dynamics.

Авторы
Alsulami Amer1 , Glukhov Anton2 , Shishlenin Maxim2, 3 , Petrovskii Sergei 1, 4
Журнал
Издательство
Nature Publishing Group
Номер выпуска
1
Язык
Английский
Страницы
20447
Статус
Опубликовано
Том
12
Год
2022
Организации
  • 1 University of Leicester
  • 2 Novosibirsk State University
  • 3 Sobolev Institute of Mathematics
  • 4 Peoples Friendship University of Russia (RUDN University)
Ключевые слова
applied mathematics; human behaviour; Mathematics and computing; science; humanities and social sciences; multidisciplinary
Дата создания
11.07.2024
Дата изменения
11.07.2024
Постоянная ссылка
https://repository.rudn.ru/ru/records/article/record/155222/
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