Integrated global assessment of the natural forest carbon potential

AbstractForests are a substantial terrestrial carbon sink, but anthropogenic changes in land use and climate have considerably reduced the scale of this system1. Remote-sensing estimates to quantify carbon losses from global forests2–5 are characterized by considerable uncertainty and we lack a comprehensive ground-sourced evaluation to benchmark these estimates. Here we combine several ground-sourced6 and satellite-derived approaches2,7,8 to evaluate the scale of the global forest carbon potential outside agricultural and urban lands. Despite regional variation, the predictions demonstrated remarkable consistency at a global scale, with only a 12% difference between the ground-sourced and satellite-derived estimates. At present, global forest carbon storage is markedly under the natural potential, with a total deficit of 226 Gt (model range = 151–363 Gt) in areas with low human footprint. Most (61%, 139 Gt C) of this potential is in areas with existing forests, in which ecosystem protection can allow forests to recover to maturity. The remaining 39% (87 Gt C) of potential lies in regions in which forests have been removed or fragmented. Although forests cannot be a substitute for emissions reductions, our results support the idea2,3,9 that the conservation, restoration and sustainable management of diverse forests offer valuable contributions to meeting global climate and biodiversity targets.

Авторы
Mo Lidong1 , Zohner C.M.1 , Reich P.B.2, 3, 4 , Liang Jingjing5 , De Miguel Sergio6, 7 , Nabuurs Gert-Jan8 , Renner S.S.9 , Van den Hoogen Johan10 , Araza Arnan8 , Herold Martin11 , Mirzagholi Leila10 , Ma Haozhi10 , Averill Colin10 , Phillips O.L.12 , Gamarra J.G.13 , Hordijk Iris10 , Routh Devin14 , Abegg Meinrad15 , Adou Yao Y.C.16 , Alberti Giorgio17, 18 , Almeyda Zambrano A.M.19 , Alvarado B.V.20 , Alvarez-Dávila Esteban21 , Alvarez-Loayza Patricia22 , Alves L.F.23 , Amaral Iêda24 , Ammer Christian25 , Antón-Fernández Clara26 , Araujo-Murakami Alejandro27 , Arroyo Luzmila27 , Avitabile Valerio28 , Aymard G.A.29, 30 , Baker T.R.12 , Bałazy Radomir31 , Banki Olaf32 , Barroso J.G.33 , Bastian M.L.34, 35 , Bastin Jean-Francois36 , Birigazzi Luca37 , Birnbaum Philippe38, 39, 40 , Bitariho Robert41 , Boeckx Pascal42 , Bongers Frans8 , Bouriaud Olivier43 , Brancalion P.H.44 , Brandl Susanne45 , Brearley F.Q.46 , Brienen Roel12 , Broadbent E.N.19 , Bruelheide Helge47, 48 , Bussotti Filippo49 , Cazzolla Gatti Roberto50 , César R.G.44 , Cesljar Goran51 , Chazdon R.L.52, 53 , Chen H.Y.54 , Chisholm Chelsea1 , Cho Hyunkook55 , Cienciala Emil56, 57 , Clark Connie58 , Clark David59 , Colletta G.D.60 , Coomes D.A.61 , Cornejo Valverde Fernando62 , Corral-Rivas J.J.63 , Crim P.M.64, 65 , Cumming J.R.64 , Dayanandan Selvadurai66 , De Gasper A.L.67 , Decuyper Mathieu8 , Derroire Géraldine68 , DeVries Ben69 , Djordjevic Ilija51 , Dolezal Jiri70, 71 , Dourdain Aurélie68 , Engone Obiang N.L.72 , Enquist B.J.73, 74 , Eyre T.J.75 , Fandohan A.B.76 , Fayle T.M.77, 78 , Feldpausch T.R.79 , Ferreira L.V.80 , Finér Leena81 , Fischer Markus82 , Fletcher Christine83 , Frizzera Lorenzo84 , Gianelle Damiano84 , Glick H.B.85 , Harris D.J.86 , Hector Andrew87 , Hemp Andreas88 , Hengeveld Geerten8 , Hérault Bruno39, 89 , Herbohn J.L.53 , Hillers Annika90, 91 , Honorio Coronado E.N.92 , Hui Cang93, 94 , Ibanez Thomas39 , Imai Nobuo95 , Jagodziński A.M.96, 97 , Jaroszewicz Bogdan98 , Johannsen V.K.99 , Joly C.A.60 , Jucker Tommaso100 , Jung Ilbin55 , Karminov Viktor101 , Kartawinata Kuswata22 , Kearsley Elizabeth42 , Kenfack David102 , Kennard D.K.103 , Kepfer-Rojas Sebastian99 , Keppel Gunnar104 , Khan M.L.105 , Killeen T.J.27 , Kim H.S.106, 107 , Kitayama Kanehiro108 , Köhl Michael109 , Korjus Henn110 , Kraxner Florian111 , Kucher Dmitry 112 , Laarmann Diana110 , Lang Mait110 , Lu Huicui113 , Lukina N.V.114 , Maitner B.S.73 , Malhi Yadvinder87 , Marcon Eric40 , Marimon B.S.115 , Marimon-Junior B.H.115 , Marshall A.R.53, 116, 117 , Martin E.H.118 , Meave J.A.119 , Melo-Cruz Omar120 , Mendoza Casimiro121 , Mendoza-Polo Irina122 , Miscicki Stanislaw123 , Merow Cory52 , Monteagudo Mendoza Abel124, 125 , Moreno V.S.44 , Mukul S.A.53, 126 , Mundhenk Philip109 , Nava-Miranda M.G.63, 127 , Neill David128 , Neldner V.J.75 , Nevenic R.V.51 , Ngugi M.R.75 , Niklaus P.A.14 , Oleksyn Jacek96 , Ontikov Petr101 , Ortiz-Malavasi Edgar20 , Pan Yude129 , Paquette Alain130 , Parada-Gutierrez Alexander27 , Parfenova E.I.131 , Park Minjee5, 106 , Parren Marc8 , Parthasarathy Narayanaswamy132 , Peri P.L.133 , Pfautsch Sebastian3 , Picard Nicolas134 , Piedade M.T.135 , Piotto Daniel136 , Pitman N.C.22 , Poulsen A.D.86 , Poulsen J.R.57, 137 , Pretzsch Hans138, 139 , Ramirez Arevalo Freddy140 , Restrepo-Correa Zorayda141 , Rodeghiero Mirco84, 142 , Rolim S.G.136 , Roopsind Anand143 , Rovero Francesco144, 145 , Rutishauser Ervan146 , Saikia Purabi147 , Salas-Eljatib Christian148, 149 , Saner Philippe150 , Schall Peter25 , Schelhaas Mart-Jan8 , Schepaschenko Dmitry111, 151 , Scherer-Lorenzen Michael152 , Schmid Bernhard14 , Schöngart Jochen135 , Searle E.B.130 , Seben Vladimír153 , Serra-Diaz J.M.154, 155 , Sheil Douglas8, 156 , Shvidenko A.Z.111 , Silva-Espejo J.E.157 , Silveira Marcos33 , Singh James158 , Sist Plinio39 , Slik Ferry159 , Sonké Bonaventure160 , Souza A.F.161 , Stereńczak K.J.30 , Svenning Jens-Christian155 , Svoboda Miroslav162 , Swanepoel Ben163 , Targhetta Natalia135 , Tchebakova Nadja131 , Ter Steege Hans32, 164 , Thomas Raquel165 , Tikhonova Elena114 , Umunay P.M.166 , Usoltsev V.A.167, 168 , Valencia Renato169 , Valladares Fernando170 , Van der Plas Fons8 , Van Do Tran171 , Van Nuland M.E.172 , Vasquez R.M.124 , Verbeeck Hans42 , Viana Helder173, 174 , Vibrans A.C.67 , Vieira Simone175 , Von Gadow Klaus93 , Wang Hua-Feng176 , Watson J.V.177 , Werner G.D.87 , Wiser S.K.178 , Wittmann Florian179 , Woell Hannsjoerg180 , Wortel Verginia181 , Zagt Roderik182 , Zawiła-Niedźwiecki Tomasz183 , Zhang Chunyu184 , Zhao Xiuhai184 , Zhou Mo5 , Zhu Zhi-Xin176 , Zo-Bi I.C.89 , Gann G.D.185 , Crowther T.W.1
Журнал
NATURE
Издательство
Springer Nature
Номер выпуска
7990
Язык
Английский
Страницы
92-101
Статус
Опубликовано
Том
624
Год
2023
Организации
  • 1 Institute of Integrative Biology, ETH Zurich (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology)
  • 2 University of Minnesota
  • 3 Western Sydney University
  • 4 University of Michigan
  • 5 Purdue University
  • 6 University of Lleida
  • 7 Joint Research Unit CTFC - AGROTECNIO - CERCA
  • 8 Wageningen University & Research
  • 9 Washington University
  • 10 ETH Zurich (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology)
  • 11 Helmholtz GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences
  • 12 University of Leeds
  • 13 Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
  • 14 University of Zürich
  • 15 Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL
  • 16 University Félix Houphouët-Boigny
  • 17 University of Udine
  • 18 National Biodiversity Future Center (NBFC)
  • 19 University of Florida
  • 20 Tecnológico de Costa Rica TEC
  • 21 Universidad Nacional Abierta y a Distancia, UNAD
  • 22 Field Museum of Natural History
  • 23 University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA)
  • 24 National Institute of Amazonian Research
  • 25 University of Göttingen
  • 26 Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research (NIBIO)
  • 27 Museo de Historia Natural Noel Kempff Mercado
  • 28 European Commission
  • 29 Herbario Universitario (PORT), UNELLEZ-Guanare
  • 30 Compensation International Progress S. A. Ciprogress Greenlife
  • 31 Forest Research Institute
  • 32 Naturalis Biodiversity Center
  • 33 Universidade Federal do Acre
  • 34 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
  • 35 Duke University
  • 36 University of Liege
  • 37 Forestry Consultant
  • 38 Institut Agronomique néo-Calédonien (IAC)
  • 39 Univ. Montpellier
  • 40 CIRAD, CNRS, INRAE, IRD
  • 41 Mbarara University of Science & Technology
  • 42 Ghent University
  • 43 Ștefan cel Mare University of Suceava
  • 44 University of São Paulo
  • 45 Bavarian State Institute of Forestry
  • 46 Manchester Metropolitan University
  • 47 Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg
  • 48 German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig
  • 49 University of Firenze
  • 50 University of Bologna
  • 51 Institute of Forestry
  • 52 University of Connecticut
  • 53 Tropical Forests and People Research Centre, University of the Sunshine Coast
  • 54 Lakehead University
  • 55 Korea Forest Promotion Institute
  • 56 IFER - Institute of Forest Ecosystem Research
  • 57 Global Change Research Institute CAS
  • 58 Duke University
  • 59 University of Missouri–St. Louis
  • 60 Universidade Estadual de Campinas
  • 61 University of Cambridge
  • 62 Andes to Amazon Biodiversity Program
  • 63 Universidad Juárez del Estado de Durango
  • 64 West Virginia University
  • 65 The College of Saint Rose
  • 66 Concordia University
  • 67 Universidade Regional de Blumenau
  • 68 Université des Antilles, Université de la Guyane)
  • 69 University of Guelph
  • 70 The Czech Academy of Sciences
  • 71 University of South Bohemia
  • 72 IRET, Herbier National du Gabon (CENAREST)
  • 73 University of Arizona
  • 74 The Santa Fe Institute
  • 75 Queensland Herbarium and Biodiversity Science
  • 76 Université Nationale d'Agriculture
  • 77 Queen Mary University of London
  • 78 Institute of Entomology
  • 79 University of Exeter
  • 80 Coordenação de Ciências da Terra e Ecologia
  • 81 Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke)
  • 82 University of Bern
  • 83 Forest Research Institute Malaysia
  • 84 Fondazione Edmund Mach
  • 85 Glick Designs LLC
  • 86 Royal Botanic Garden Edinburgh
  • 87 University of Oxford
  • 88 University of Bayreuth
  • 89 National Polytechnic Institute (INP-HB)
  • 90 The Royal Society for the Protection of Birds
  • 91 Wild Chimpanzee Foundation, Liberia Office
  • 92 Instituto de Investigaciones de la Amazonía Peruana
  • 93 Stellenbosch University
  • 94 African Institute for Mathematical Sciences
  • 95 Tokyo University of Agriculture
  • 96 Polish Academy of Sciences
  • 97 Poznań University of Life Sciences
  • 98 University of Warsaw
  • 99 University of Copenhagen
  • 100 University of Bristol
  • 101 Mytischi Branch of Bauman Moscow State Technical University
  • 102 Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute
  • 103 Colorado Mesa University
  • 104 University of South Australia
  • 105 A Central University
  • 106 Seoul National University
  • 107 National Center for Agro Meteorology
  • 108 Kyoto University
  • 109 University of Hamburg
  • 110 Estonian University of Life Sciences
  • 111 International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
  • 112 Peoples' Friendship University of Russia (RUDN University)
  • 113 Qingdao Agricultural University
  • 114 Center for Forest Ecology and Productivity, Russian Academy of Sciences
  • 115 Universidade do Estado de Mato Grosso
  • 116 University of York
  • 117 Flamingo Land Ltd.
  • 118 College of African Wildlife Management
  • 119 Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México
  • 120 Universidad del Tolima
  • 121 Colegio de Profesionales Forestales de Cochabamba
  • 122 Jardín Botánico de Medellín
  • 123 Warsaw University of Life Sciences
  • 124 Jardín Botánico de Missouri
  • 125 Universidad Nacional de San Antonio Abad del Cusco
  • 126 Department of Environment and Development Studies, United International University
  • 127 Escuela de Doctorado Internacional de la Universidad de Santiago de Compostela (EDIUS)
  • 128 Universidad Estatal Amazónica
  • 129 USDA Forest Service
  • 130 Université du Québec à Montréal
  • 131 V. N. Sukachev Institute of Forest, FRC KSC, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences
  • 132 Pondicherry University
  • 133 Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA), Universidad Nacional de la Patagonia Austral (UNPA), Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET)
  • 134 GIP Ecofor
  • 135 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia
  • 136 Universidade Federal do Sul da Bahia
  • 137 The Nature Conservancy
  • 138 Technical University of Munich
  • 139 University Valladolid
  • 140 Universidad Nacional de la Amazonía Peruana
  • 141 Servicios Ecosistémicos y Cambio Climático (SECC), Fundación Con Vida & Corporación COL-TREE
  • 142 University of Trento
  • 143 Conservation International
  • 144 University of Florence
  • 145 MUSE - Museo delle Scienze
  • 146 Info Flora
  • 147 Central University of Jharkhand
  • 148 Universidad de La Frontera
  • 149 Universidad de Chile
  • 150 Rhino and Forest Fund e.V.
  • 151 Siberian Federal University
  • 152 University of Freiburg
  • 153 Forest Research Institute Zvolen
  • 154 Université de Lorraine, AgroParisTech, INRAE,
  • 155 Aarhus University
  • 156 Norwegian University of Life Sciences
  • 157 Universidad de la Serena
  • 158 Guyana Forestry Commission
  • 159 Environmental and Life Sciences, Faculty of Science, Universiti Brunei Darussalam
  • 160 University of Yaoundé I
  • 161 Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte
  • 162 Czech University of Life Sciences
  • 163 Wildlife Conservation Society
  • 164 Utrecht University
  • 165 Iwokrama International Centre for Rainforest Conservation and Development (IIC)
  • 166 Yale University
  • 167 Botanical Garden of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences
  • 168 Ural State Forest Engineering University
  • 169 Pontificia Universidad Católica del Ecuador
  • 170 LINCGlobal, Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales, CSIC
  • 171 Vietnamese Academy of Forest Sciences
  • 172 Department of Biology, Stanford University
  • 173 Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environmental and Biological Sciences, CITAB, UTAD, Quinta de Prados
  • 174 Agricultural High School, Polytechnic Institute of Viseu, IPV
  • 175 University of Campinas, UNICAMP
  • 176 Hainan University
  • 177 West Virginia University
  • 178 Manaaki Whenua – Landcare Research
  • 179 Karlsruhe Institute for Technology
  • 180 Independent Researcher
  • 181 Centre for Agricultural Research in Suriname (CELOS)
  • 182 Tropenbos International
  • 183 Polish State Forests, Coordination Center for Environmental Projects
  • 184 Beijing Forestry University
  • 185 Society for Ecological Restoration (SER)
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