RANDOMNESS, UNCERTAINTY, INCOMPLETENESS, RISK AND ITS MEASUREMENTS

In this work we analyze different aspects regarding the terminology, understanding concepts and approaches in modeling and measuring components and variables related to safety and risk. This discussion conversation is open for further interpretations and suggestions. We study it with the help of models (images) artificial, descriptions, scientific approaches, discussions, etc., and using the help of poly-semantic languages. Various kinds of risks arise precisely because of the uncertainty of the situation. Mathematical models use uncertainties in several ways: randomness, which is explained and measured by objective probability and estimated using statistical methods. Uncertainty, measured by subjective probabilities, is estimated by expert methods, or by fuzzy uncertainty methods. Each of these approaches has its advantages and disadvantages. Despite the difference in approaches to measuring uncertainties, the development of a risk situation are described in an appropriate way using an event tree. We show the construction of an event tree, that allows us to see details and specify in the development of a risk situation. We also discuss how this approach can be used to evaluate the sensitivity of the output characteristics of the process to the parameters of the initial information.