Forecasting the kilovoltage therapy unit with the mathematical model

Accessibility is an important part of quality of medical care and depends on the technical resources, infrastructure of a site, clinical stuff and work management. Clinical guidelines for the treatment of non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) which define the quality of processes influence work load. Purpose of the study was to determine the clinical and organizational changes in the technology of kilovoltage therapy for NMSC within the day-hospital department after implementation of new clinical guidelines and fraction regimes in compare with previously used schemes; derive a mathematical model of the work for the kilovoltage therapy unit. Materials and methods. Data from the kilovoltage therapy unit of the Sverdlovsk Regional Oncology Dispensary (SROD) were undertaken. Timekeeping was used for calculation the average duration of radiotherapy sessions per patient. The results were evaluated using correlation analysis. To forecast the need for material and human resources, an economic method of mathematical modeling was used. Results. The analysis of the kilovoltage therapy unit of radiotherapy department of the SROD for 3 years showed an increase from 10.4 to 17.3 in the average number of therapeutic fractions per patient after the implementation of the updated clinical guidelines. An increase in the average number of radiotherapy sessions leads to a doubling of the average bed-day of the patient's stay in the day-hospital. The formula was proposed for predicting the work of the unit. There is a clear correlation between the duration of treatment, the dynamics of hospitalization and the number of treated patients. The obtained results using a mathematical model fully correspond to the actual performance of the radiotherapy unit. Conclusion. To ensure optimal availability of medical care, it is necessary to match treatment technologies with available resources of the organization. The introduction of new treatment programs may require the expansion of staff, increase the quantity of medical equipment. The obtained mathematical model of the kilovoltage therapy unit allows to predict the optimal mode of work while maintaining the quality and accessibility of medical care. © 2020 RAD Conference Proceedings.