Models for covid‐19 daily confirmed cases in different countries

In this paper, daily confirmed cases of COVID‐19 in different countries are modelled using different mathematical regression models. The curve fitting is used as a prediction tool for modeling both past and upcoming coronavirus waves. According to virus spreading and average annual temperatures, countries under study are classified into three main categories. First category, the first wave of the coronavirus takes about two‐year seasons (about 180 days) to complete a viral cycle. Second category, the first wave of the coronavirus takes about one‐year season (about 90 days) to complete the first viral cycle with higher virus spreading rate. These countries take stopping periods with low virus spreading rate. Third category, countries that take the highest virus spreading rate and the viral cycle complete without stopping periods. Finally, predictions of different upcoming scenarios are made and compared with actual current smoothed daily confirmed cases in these countries. © 2021 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.

Authors
Ahmed H.M.1 , Elbarkouky R.A.2 , Omar O.A.M.2 , Ragusa M.A. 3, 4
Journal
Publisher
MDPI AG
Number of issue
6
Language
English
Status
Published
Number
659
Volume
9
Year
2021
Organizations
  • 1 Higher Institute of Engineering, El‐Shorouk Academy, El‐Shorouk City, Cairo, 11837, Egypt
  • 2 Physics and Engineering Mathematics Department, Faculty of Engineering, Ain Shams University, Cairo, 11517, Egypt
  • 3 Dipartimento di Matematica e Informatica, Università di Catania, Viale Andrea Doria 6, Catania, 95125, Italy
  • 4 RUDN University, 6 Miklukho, Maklay St, Moscow, 117198, Russian Federation
Keywords
COVID‐19; Curve fitting; Fourier fitting; Optimization algorithm
Date of creation
20.04.2021
Date of change
20.04.2021
Short link
https://repository.rudn.ru/en/records/article/record/72057/
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