MODELING THE IMPACT OF AGRICULTURE, FISHING, AND LIVESTOCK SECTOR ON THE UAE’S GDP

This research aims to determine the impact of the agriculture, fishing, and livestock sector (AFL sector) on the gross domestic product (GDP) of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) from 1975 to 2022. The authors use the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test (ADF), Granger causality, Vector autoregression (VAR), Ordinary least squares (OLS), and Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) techniques. The causal relationship between the UAE AFL sector and the GDP and its main sectors was studied in the short and long terms. The research concludes that the total GDP, oil GDP, and nonoil GDP respond to changes in the AFL sector and vice versa, which explains the positive role played by such a sector in the UAE’s economy in the short and long terms. The study recommends that the government direct attention to the AFL sector as an additional source of income for the state, which will reduce dependence on the country’s oil sector. The study also emphasizes the necessity of economic development in the AFL sector and at the level of all economic sectors to achieve the country’s comprehensive long-term Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). © 2024 Ahmad S. Al Humssi, Larisa N. Sorokina and Vladimir Z. Chaplyuk.