Determination of the Probability of Collision of Near-Earth Space Objects Taking into Account Form and Orientation

Abstract: A method for assessing the probability of collision of two observed space objects in near-earth space is proposed. The solution is based on the method of statistical modeling, which made it possible to take into account the shape and orientation of approaching objects. The developed method provides for the automatic stop of calculations when the required accuracy and reliability of the solution is achieved. An analysis of existing approaches to assessing the probability of collision is given. A calculation was made for the real approach of the vehicles CHINASAT-20 and SHIJIAN-17. © 2021, Pleiades Publishing, Ltd.