Перспективы распространения ИГИЛ после разгрома Халифата

В статье анализируется ситуация, сложившаяся после разгрома халифата ИГИЛ. Хотя физическое воплощение проекта ИГИЛ по государственному строительству было подавлено, но угроза восстановления радикальной группировки довольно высокая. Основной причиной, по которой международное джихадистское движение остается жизнеспособным, является внешняя обстановка - сохраняющаяся неспособность слабых государств навести порядок и скудный потенциал сил безопасности в ряде стран и регионов. Лидеры радикалов рассредоточивают боевиков и ресурсы в новые районы, где они могут вновь укрепиться и расшириться.

The article analyzes the situation that developed after the defeat of the Caliphate of ISIS. Although the physical implementation of the ISIS state-building project has been suppressed, the threat of the radical group’s re-establishment remains very high. The author concludes that the main reason why the international jihadist movement remains viable is the external situation - the continuing inability of weak States to restore order and the meagre potential of security forces in a number of countries and regions. Radical leaders disperse militants and resources into new areas where they can re-establish themselves and expand. An ideal territory for expansion is a weak state that suffers from constant civil conflicts and interfaith tensions, and also has a population susceptible to jihadist propaganda. The main result of the collapse of the caliphate in the Middle East was the activation, expansion and transformation of local extremist movements throughout the region of South and Southeast Asia. In South Asia, Myanmar is an example of such a weak state affected by terrorist groups. The potential area for the growth of ISIS after the defeat of the caliphate is the disputed territory of Kashmir. The Philippines and Indonesia in many ways can be an attractive place to relocate ISIS fighters and build a base there. Afghanistan is a country torn by violence for decades, and, accordingly, it already has a developed infrastructure for jihad. On the Sinai Peninsula and in Libya, jihadists use similar methods: guerrilla tactics, terrorist attacks, including raids, ambushes and bombings. The author concludes that the ability of ISIS to adapt makes the threat of its further expansion very high.