Mudflow danger of periglacial lakes in the Elbrus region

Periglacial lakes of high mountains often become the center of the large mudflows formation. The purpose of this study was to analyze the mudflow danger of periglacial lakes in the Elbrus region. The analysis was performed on the basis of field researches, interpretation and processing of PLEIADES satellite images and SPOT-6.The interpretive signs of mudflow danger were revealed in the high mountains and a scale of mudflow risk was created on the basis of the identified interpretive signs. Special attention was paid to Upper Bashkarinsky Lake, the breakthrough of which caused a large mudflow in September 2017. According to the analysis of satellite images, we can conclude that the mudflow was not instantaneous, but occurred within a few hours, and this confirms the safety of Lower Bashkarinsky Lake. Intensive rainfall contributed to the blurring of the surface moraine on the glacier and then the ice itself. According to the satellite image the area of Upper Lake before the mudflow was 87 718 m2, and after the mudflow-27 608 m2. Thus, the lake area decreased by 60 110 m2. Most of the periglacial lakes in the upper reaches of the Baksan river valley are located at altitudes from 2400 to 3400 m, the maximum water volumes are concentrated in Lakes Syltrankel, Bashkar, Donguz-Orun, which are also potential mudslides and require long-term scientific monitoring. © 2019 SPIE. Downloading of the abstract is permitted for personal use only.