MODELLING THE IMPACT OF MACROECONOMIC FACTORS ON COUNTRY’S FINANCIAL STABILITY: EVIDENCE FROM THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

Promoting financial stability is one of the main priorities for the governments of countries seeking to achieve sustainable economic growth. The article aims to assess and model the impact of macroeconomic factors on the financial stability of the Russian Federation in the period 2010-2030 using ADF, OLS, VAR, ARCH, VECM and other techniques. In addition, the linear causal relationship between a group of 6 macroeconomic indicators and the financial stability of the Russian Federation was studied. The results of this research show that Russia's financial stability depends mainly on exports of crude oil and natural gas, price stability, volume of government debt, deficits and surpluses of the state's budget, exchange rate stabilization of national currency, and effectiveness of the banking system. Additionally, events taking place in Eastern Europe, the Middle East and the African continent may negatively affect Russia's financial security if it fails to take the necessary preventive measures. © 2024, Bulgarska Akademiya na Naukite. All rights reserved.