Шкалы прогноза рецидива кровотечения из гастродуоденальных язв.

Работа основана на изучении результатов лечения 542 больных с язвенными гастродуоденальными кровотечениями. Для определения вероятности развития рецидива язвенного кровотечения авторы предлагают использовать индекс рецидива кровотечения и систему прогноза рецидива кровотечения.

Rating Scales of Gastroduodenal Ulcer Rebleeding.

Reliable prediction of rebleeding after initial endoscopic hemostasis is one of the most important aims in the surgery of gastroduodenal ulcer hemorrhage. Results of prognostication of the risk of ulcer rebleeding prevent surgeons from unjustified waiting and unwarranted operations. The work is based on the results of treatment of 542 patients with gastroduodenal ulcer hemorrhage. For the purpose of detecting the probability of ulcer rebleeding the authors propose the index of rebleeding (IR) and the system of prognostication of rebleeding (SPR). The use of developed methods permits to estimate quickly and objectively the risk of rebleeding and to choose the optimal therapeutic approach based on the severity of patient's status. As the number at the SPR scale is increased the risk of rebleeding increases as well and reaches its maximum at 24 and more. The use of the developed system also permits to predict the risk of the fatal outcome which can be often related not only to the blood loss but also to the patient's severe concomitant pathology. The accuracy of the prognosis with the use of the SPR scale with numbers 10 and less or 24 and more was 100%. The numbers from 11 to 23 were associated with accuracy of 93-94%.