Политический риск-менеджмент в условиях глобальной турбулентности: конфликтологические экспликации

Political risk management in times of global turbulence: conflict studies explications

The main goal of this article is to propose a conflict perspective on the theoretical conceptualization of political risk management in a context of global instability. The suggested approach demonstrates that various interpretations of instability are a result of diverse reactions and deep polarizations among states, societies, social groups, and individuals in response to increased risk-taking in a contemporary world characterized by nonlinear dynamics. Based on current methodological approaches introduced into the field of strategic risk management discourse, this paper examines contentious issues that characterize global risks not as abstract phenomena, but as reflections of socio-political conflicts. The paper proposes an understanding of risk management as a comprehensive set of effective measures to neutralize threats, with the aim of extracting benefits, distributing risks, leveraging strengths, and mitigating weaknesses in order to create genuine competitive advantages. The issue of the use of threats and dangers as a means of political dominance is raised. The focus of risk-benefit strategies towards usurping and maintaining a dominant position in the “power over risks” hierarchy is justified. It has been demonstrated that risk-benefactors make decisions regarding which risks to accept and which to avoid. The article highlights several key trends in risk management strategies, which arise from the modern understanding of the combination of risks and opportunities. This understanding determines those areas where a given political actor has an advantage due to a better understanding of potential threats or control over dangerous resources. The authors conclude that excessive reliance on the absolute loss aspect (the negative side of risk) in comparison to potential gains (the positive side of risk) leads to the adoption of avoidance strategies and the transformation of risks in other environments. © А. В. Алейников, А. Н. Сунами, Д. А. Мальцева, 2025